NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU AFA
Points 76.2 59.6
Total Points   135.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 22.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 27.0
Points From Free Throws 18.6 10.5
Shooting SDSU AFA
Field Goals Made 25.3 20.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 51.5
Field Goal % 48.9% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 11.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 24.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 18.6 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 15.2
Free Throw % 73.7% 68.7%
Ball Control SDSU AFA
Rebounds 37.7 26.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 18.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 7.5
Turnovers 9.1 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.7
Steals 6.8 5.5
Fouls 14.9 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU AFA
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 60.6
% of Possessions with SDSU AFA
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 36.0%
Player Fouled 26.4% 22.9%
Turnover 14.0% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU AFA
Shot Blocked 5.4% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 38.0% 22.3%