NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU UNLV
Points 70.7 65.7
Total Points   136.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 31.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.2
Points From Free Throws 15.1 14.9
Shooting SDSU UNLV
Field Goals Made 24.4 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 54.5
Field Goal % 42.3% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 15.1 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 20.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 73.0%
Ball Control SDSU UNLV
Rebounds 38.3 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 9.7
Turnovers 10.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.2
Steals 6.6 5.0
Fouls 15.5 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU UNLV
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 66.8
% of Possessions with SDSU UNLV
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 25.3%
Player Fouled 22.0% 22.9%
Turnover 14.9% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU UNLV
Shot Blocked 6.1% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 35.8% 27.7%