NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU NEV
Points 67.8 66.6
Total Points   134.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 29.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 20.1
Points From Free Throws 17.0 17.6
Shooting SDSU NEV
Field Goals Made 22.1 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 51.0
Field Goal % 40.5% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.0 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 24.7
Free Throw % 73.7% 71.2%
Ball Control SDSU NEV
Rebounds 36.4 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 8.6
Turnovers 10.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 5.8 5.6
Fouls 19.6 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU NEV
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 66.0
% of Possessions with SDSU NEV
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 25.1%
Player Fouled 25.7% 28.9%
Turnover 14.7% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU NEV
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 25.5%