NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU MICH
Points 77.4 66.4
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 29.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 23.0
Points From Free Throws 14.9 14.4
Shooting SDSU MICH
Field Goals Made 27.8 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 55.8
Field Goal % 46.1% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 44.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.9 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.3
Free Throw % 73.7% 70.8%
Ball Control SDSU MICH
Rebounds 37.5 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.5
Turnovers 8.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.6
Steals 8.3 3.9
Fouls 16.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU MICH
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 68.2
% of Possessions with SDSU MICH
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 27.9%
Player Fouled 22.6% 23.1%
Turnover 12.3% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU MICH
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 28.6%