NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS PUR
Points 69.5 78.6
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 21.7
Points From Free Throws 10.2 16.4
Shooting WIS PUR
Field Goals Made 26.0 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 52.3
Field Goal % 42.5% 52.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 42.3%
Free Throws Made 10.2 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 22.5
Free Throw % 75.1% 73.0%
Ball Control WIS PUR
Rebounds 28.7 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.3
Turnovers 7.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 1.3 3.3
Steals 5.9 4.1
Fouls 17.7 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS PUR
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 66.5
% of Possessions with WIS PUR
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 22.1%
Player Fouled 19.3% 25.9%
Turnover 11.1% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS PUR
Shot Blocked 6.4% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 29.2%