NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS PSU
Points 76.0 72.8
Total Points   148.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.3 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 21.8
Points From Free Throws 17.2 15.0
Shooting WIS PSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 53.4
Field Goal % 47.8% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 17.2 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 20.0
Free Throw % 75.1% 74.9%
Ball Control WIS PSU
Rebounds 35.0 28.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 5.9
Turnovers 10.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.6
Steals 5.8 5.8
Fouls 15.9 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS PSU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 65.6
% of Possessions with WIS PSU
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 25.6%
Player Fouled 25.2% 22.7%
Turnover 15.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS PSU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 19.2%