NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS MSU
Points 69.1 72.0
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 19.2
Points From Free Throws 13.9 12.0
Shooting WIS MSU
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 54.6
Field Goal % 43.2% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 13.9 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 16.6
Free Throw % 75.1% 72.5%
Ball Control WIS MSU
Rebounds 31.9 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 7.1
Turnovers 9.7 9.3
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.0
Steals 4.9 5.2
Fouls 14.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS MSU
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 64.8
% of Possessions with WIS MSU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 21.6%
Player Fouled 24.1% 21.9%
Turnover 14.4% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS MSU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 23.4%