NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS MD
Points 69.5 67.3
Total Points   136.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 17.0
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.4
Shooting WIS MD
Field Goals Made 24.1 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 51.3
Field Goal % 43.6% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 21.1
Free Throw % 75.1% 73.1%
Ball Control WIS MD
Rebounds 33.6 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.3
Turnovers 9.7 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.3
Steals 5.5 4.6
Fouls 16.5 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS MD
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 64.3
% of Possessions with WIS MD
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 23.7%
Player Fouled 25.7% 24.4%
Turnover 14.3% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS MD
Shot Blocked 8.5% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 23.3%