NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS USC
Points 79.1 75.8
Total Points   154.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 31.6 16.9
Points From Free Throws 18.2 17.9
Shooting WIS USC
Field Goals Made 25.2 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 58.6
Field Goal % 39.6% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 18.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 25.1
Free Throw % 78.6% 71.4%
Ball Control WIS USC
Rebounds 37.6 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.6
Turnovers 8.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.8
Steals 5.8 4.0
Fouls 18.0 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS USC
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 73.8
% of Possessions with WIS USC
2 Point Attempt 35.2% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 37.8% 22.2%
Player Fouled 23.2% 24.1%
Turnover 11.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS USC
Shot Blocked 8.3% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 26.3%