NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LBSU SDSU
Points 65.8 78.9
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 29.0
Points From Free Throws 15.8 16.5
Shooting LBSU SDSU
Field Goals Made 22.4 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 60.0
Field Goal % 37.4% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.5% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 15.8 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 22.5
Free Throw % 71.5% 73.7%
Ball Control LBSU SDSU
Rebounds 37.8 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 11.7
Turnovers 11.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.8
Steals 6.1 7.1
Fouls 16.4 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Lg Beach St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LBSU SDSU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 74.0
% of Possessions with LBSU SDSU
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 31.9%
Player Fouled 23.4% 22.6%
Turnover 15.8% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken LBSU SDSU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 31.6%