NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP WMU
Points 71.4 70.9
Total Points   142.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 22.2
Points From Free Throws 10.9 11.3
Shooting VALP WMU
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 59.2
Field Goal % 42.1% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 10.9 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 18.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 61.5%
Ball Control VALP WMU
Rebounds 34.0 41.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 13.2
Turnovers 8.8 12.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.1
Steals 6.0 4.3
Fouls 14.7 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP WMU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 71.6
% of Possessions with VALP WMU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 24.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 20.8%
Turnover 12.4% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP WMU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 35.5%