NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP DRKE
Points 65.7 82.1
Total Points   147.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 23.9
Points From Free Throws 9.9 14.6
Shooting VALP DRKE
Field Goals Made 24.3 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 58.7
Field Goal % 40.8% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 9.9 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 19.5
Free Throw % 70.2% 74.8%
Ball Control VALP DRKE
Rebounds 31.4 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.0
Turnovers 10.3 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 1.3
Steals 4.8 5.8
Fouls 15.2 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Drake

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP DRKE
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 70.4
% of Possessions with VALP DRKE
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 25.2%
Player Fouled 18.5% 21.3%
Turnover 14.5% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP DRKE
Shot Blocked 2.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 25.5%