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Valparaiso at Mississippi
Sat Dec 10, 2022
3:00pm ET
Oxford, MS
Valparaiso at Mississippi: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Mississippi by 15, Total Points: 130.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | VALP | adv | MISS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 18-13-0 | 14-18-0 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 12-9-0 | 7-12-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L3 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 2-8-0 | |
| Home | 6-10-0 | 8-10-0 | |
| Away | 12-3-0 | 6-8-0 |
Valparaiso Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Trinity Christian | -- | W by 39 | -- |
| 11/10 | Home | IUPUI | -3.5 | L by 10 | -13.5 |
| 11/14 | Home | WI-Grn Bay | -3.5 | W by 5 | +1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | Illinois | +29.5 | L by 23 | +6.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | W Illinois | -2.5 | W by 7 | +4.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | Southern | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Drake | +14.0 | L by 18 | -4.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Belmont | +15.5 | L by 9 | +6.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Central Mich | +3.5 | L by 4 | -0.5 |
| 12/09 | Away | VA Tech | +21.5 | L by 21 | +0.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago St | -3.0 | L by 1 | -4.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Samford | +8.5 | L by 18 | -9.5 |
| 12/29 | Away | Elon | +5.0 | L by 4 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Bradley | +10.5 | L by 25 | -14.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | IL-Chicago | +12.5 | L by 6 | +6.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | S Illinois | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| 01/14 | Away | Illinois St | +10.0 | W by 9 | +19.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Evansville | +7.0 | L by 3 | +4.0 |
| 01/20 | Home | IL-Chicago | +3.5 | W by 7 | +10.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | S Illinois | +13.5 | L by 6 | +7.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Missouri St | +4.0 | L by 11 | -7.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Drake | +19.5 | L by 11 | +8.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Evansville | -1.5 | L by 1 | -2.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Indiana St | +20.5 | L by 40 | -19.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Belmont | +6.5 | L by 18 | -11.5 |
| 02/14 | Home | N Iowa | +7.5 | L by 19 | -11.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Missouri St | +13.0 | L by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Indiana St | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Murray St | +13.0 | L by 12 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | N Iowa | +16.0 | L by 14 | +2.0 |
| 03/03 | Home | Illinois St | +5.5 | W by 3 | +8.5 |
| 03/07 | Neutral | Belmont | +14.0 | L by 25 | -11.0 |
Mississippi Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Alabama St | -26.5 | W by 10 | -16.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | E Washingtn | -14.5 | W by 11 | -3.5 |
| 11/14 | Home | Detroit | -23.5 | W by 1 | -22.5 |
| 11/17 | Home | Sam Hous St | -9.5 | W by 3 | -6.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Temple | -4.5 | W by 1 | -3.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | NC State | -2.0 | W by 20 | +18.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Memphis | -1.0 | W by 3 | +2.0 |
| 12/05 | Home | Mt St Marys | -16.0 | W by 9 | -7.0 |
| 12/10 | Away | UCF | +3.5 | W by 2 | +5.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | California | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 12/19 | Home | Troy | -13.0 | W by 21 | +8.0 |
| 12/23 | Neutral | S Mississippi | +9.0 | W by 17 | +26.0 |
| 12/31 | Home | Bryant | -15.0 | W by 17 | +2.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Tennessee | +12.0 | L by 26 | -14.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Florida | +2.5 | W by 18 | +20.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | Vanderbilt | -10.0 | W by 13 | +3.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | LSU | +3.0 | L by 9 | -6.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Auburn | +12.5 | L by 23 | -10.5 |
| 01/24 | Home | Arkansas | -8.5 | W by 26 | +17.5 |
| 01/27 | Away | Texas A&M | +8.0 | W by 3 | +11.0 |
| 01/30 | Home | Miss State | -1.0 | W by 4 | +3.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Auburn | +3.0 | L by 14 | -11.0 |
| 02/06 | Away | S Carolina | +3.5 | L by 3 | +0.5 |
| 02/13 | Away | Kentucky | +8.5 | L by 12 | -3.5 |
| 02/17 | Home | Missouri | -11.5 | W by 3 | -8.5 |
| 02/21 | Away | Miss State | +6.5 | L by 12 | -5.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | S Carolina | -3.5 | L by 13 | -16.5 |
| 02/28 | Home | Alabama | +5.5 | L by 15 | -9.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | Missouri | -1.0 | W by 6 | +5.0 |
| 03/05 | Away | Georgia | +2.0 | L by 3 | -1.0 |
| 03/09 | Home | Texas A&M | -1.0 | L by 26 | -27.0 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Texas A&M | +4.5 | L by 9 | -4.5 |
| MISS -15.0 | Open | -15.5 | High | -17.5 |
| Last | -16.0 | Low | -15.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1101 games where the closing line favored the home team by 14 to 16 points. In these games:
- The team like Mississippi won the game 1014 times (92.1%).
- The team like Valparaiso won the game 87 times (7.9%).
- The team like Valparaiso did better against the spread, going 557-518-26 (51.8% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2019-2020 NCAA Basketball season there have been 4238 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Valparaiso did better against the spread, going 2125-2028-85 (51.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -14.5 | -14.5 | -- |
| Open | -17.0 | -16.5 | -- |
| History | |||
| 12/10 03:04 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/10 02:55 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 02:14 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/10 02:08 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 01:29 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 01:04 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/10 12:37 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 12:24 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/10 12:04 PM | -- | -15.0 | -- |
| 12/10 11:49 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 11:08 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 10:32 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 09:56 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 09:44 AM | -- | -15.0 | -- |
| 12/10 09:38 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 08:35 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/10 08:34 AM | -- | -15.0 | -- |
| 12/10 01:25 AM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/09 09:22 PM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/09 07:54 PM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 12/09 07:34 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/09 06:01 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
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