NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP MISS
Points 66.0 80.3
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 22.2
Points From Free Throws 10.3 14.5
Shooting VALP MISS
Field Goals Made 24.1 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 59.6
Field Goal % 39.3% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 40.0%
Free Throws Made 10.3 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 19.9
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.0%
Ball Control VALP MISS
Rebounds 32.8 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.2
Turnovers 10.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.2
Steals 4.9 7.0
Fouls 14.6 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP MISS
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 72.1
% of Possessions with VALP MISS
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 22.4%
Player Fouled 17.7% 20.8%
Turnover 15.2% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP MISS
Shot Blocked 7.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 33.5%