NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIN HOU
Points 60.5 71.2
Total Points   131.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 22.0
Points From Free Throws 13.0 12.8
Shooting CIN HOU
Field Goals Made 20.5 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 62.9
Field Goal % 37.0% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 43.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.0 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 17.8
Free Throw % 68.9% 71.9%
Ball Control CIN HOU
Rebounds 40.1 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 12.7
Turnovers 13.5 7.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 5.0
Steals 4.0 8.4
Fouls 12.7 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIN HOU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 73.7
% of Possessions with CIN HOU
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 50.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 25.5%
Player Fouled 20.9% 18.6%
Turnover 19.8% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 12.4% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIN HOU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 31.9%