NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SHSU HCU
Points 88.2 67.7
Total Points   155.9
Points From 2-Pointers 51.5 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 14.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 14.7
Shooting SHSU HCU
Field Goals Made 33.2 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 65.6 54.3
Field Goal % 50.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.9 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 14.3 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 23.0
Free Throw % 72.3% 64.1%
Ball Control SHSU HCU
Rebounds 39.2 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 8.8
Turnovers 8.5 13.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.0
Steals 7.7 4.3
Fouls 16.5 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SHSU HCU
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 78.1 68.7
% of Possessions with SHSU HCU
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 19.0%
Player Fouled 18.9% 22.4%
Turnover 11.5% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SHSU HCU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 36.9% 25.2%