NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SHSU SMU
Points 69.5 78.0
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.9
Shooting SHSU SMU
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 59.3
Field Goal % 40.4% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 21.7
Free Throw % 72.3% 68.6%
Ball Control SHSU SMU
Rebounds 35.5 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 12.3
Turnovers 11.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.4
Steals 5.8 6.9
Fouls 14.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SHSU SMU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 73.0
% of Possessions with SHSU SMU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 25.8%
Player Fouled 22.0% 21.0%
Turnover 16.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SHSU SMU
Shot Blocked 9.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 34.8%