NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK BAY
Points 61.8 91.2
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.5 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 33.6
Points From Free Throws 11.5 20.3
Shooting CARK BAY
Field Goals Made 21.7 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 56.9
Field Goal % 38.7% 52.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 44.4%
Free Throws Made 11.5 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 27.8
Free Throw % 75.3% 73.1%
Ball Control CARK BAY
Rebounds 26.4 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 19.3 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 12.1
Turnovers 12.6 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.9
Steals 5.9 8.0
Fouls 17.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK BAY
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 74.0
% of Possessions with CARK BAY
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 19.4% 25.2%
Turnover 17.8% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK BAY
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 38.6%