NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO NDSU
Points 78.2 77.1
Total Points   155.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 32.4 21.1
Points From Free Throws 9.3 15.5
Shooting UNCO NDSU
Field Goals Made 29.1 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 61.9
Field Goal % 48.5% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 28.6 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 9.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 21.1
Free Throw % 73.1% 73.5%
Ball Control UNCO NDSU
Rebounds 35.5 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.2
Turnovers 12.3 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.5
Steals 3.4 6.9
Fouls 14.6 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Colorado

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO NDSU
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 74.7
% of Possessions with UNCO NDSU
2 Point Attempt 38.6% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 26.6%
Player Fouled 16.9% 20.2%
Turnover 17.0% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 4.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO NDSU
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 26.9%