NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO NDSU
Points 83.6 81.3
Total Points   164.9
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 27.4 32.8
Points From Free Throws 11.9 15.2
Shooting UNCO NDSU
Field Goals Made 31.3 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 54.6
Field Goal % 51.9% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.6% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 43.5%
Free Throws Made 11.9 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 19.4
Free Throw % 71.5% 78.2%
Ball Control UNCO NDSU
Rebounds 31.5 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 5.9
Turnovers 7.0 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 1.5
Steals 5.0 3.6
Fouls 15.8 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO NDSU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 66.3
% of Possessions with UNCO NDSU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 32.9%
Player Fouled 18.3% 22.8%
Turnover 10.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.7% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 20.2%