NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK DUKE
Points 59.1 90.4
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 33.3
Points From Free Throws 10.3 18.0
Shooting CARK DUKE
Field Goals Made 21.4 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 59.2
Field Goal % 37.5% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 44.6%
Free Throws Made 10.3 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 25.2
Free Throw % 75.3% 71.6%
Ball Control CARK DUKE
Rebounds 28.8 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.8
Turnovers 12.6 7.6
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.6
Steals 4.6 8.2
Fouls 15.3 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK DUKE
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 74.1
% of Possessions with CARK DUKE
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 30.0%
Player Fouled 18.2% 21.8%
Turnover 18.0% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 36.2%