NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO MTST
Points 78.3 78.7
Total Points   157.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.5 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 30.2
Points From Free Throws 13.0 11.7
Shooting UNCO MTST
Field Goals Made 29.4 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 59.1
Field Goal % 50.6% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 13.0 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 16.2
Free Throw % 74.6% 72.4%
Ball Control UNCO MTST
Rebounds 33.9 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 5.9
Turnovers 11.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.2
Steals 5.4 7.3
Fouls 15.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO MTST
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 68.8
% of Possessions with UNCO MTST
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 31.6%
Player Fouled 20.4% 21.0%
Turnover 15.2% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO MTST
Shot Blocked 3.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 17.7%