NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER CIT
Points 74.0 69.5
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 44.8 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 15.8
Points From Free Throws 8.7 15.5
Shooting MER CIT
Field Goals Made 29.2 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 52.9
Field Goal % 49.4% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 8.7 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 21.7
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.4%
Ball Control MER CIT
Rebounds 31.7 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.6
Turnovers 9.5 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.2
Steals 6.3 4.9
Fouls 16.6 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER CIT
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 65.7
% of Possessions with MER CIT
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 20.7%
Player Fouled 16.8% 24.4%
Turnover 13.9% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER CIT
Shot Blocked 4.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 27.0%