NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER SAM
Points 72.5 82.0
Total Points   154.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 25.2
Points From Free Throws 13.5 18.3
Shooting MER SAM
Field Goals Made 26.3 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 55.7
Field Goal % 44.8% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 13.5 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 25.9
Free Throw % 67.9% 70.7%
Ball Control MER SAM
Rebounds 34.1 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.4
Turnovers 13.0 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.4
Steals 6.5 7.8
Fouls 19.3 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER SAM
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 71.3
% of Possessions with MER SAM
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 25.5%
Player Fouled 20.1% 26.4%
Turnover 17.8% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER SAM
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 29.2%