NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER WCU
Points 67.3 74.2
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 20.9
Points From Free Throws 11.8 14.0
Shooting MER WCU
Field Goals Made 25.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 59.2
Field Goal % 41.8% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 46.1 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 14.2 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 11.8 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 20.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 70.0%
Ball Control MER WCU
Rebounds 33.8 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 11.0
Turnovers 7.6 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 4.7 3.5
Fouls 15.5 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER WCU
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 71.5
% of Possessions with MER WCU
2 Point Attempt 58.1% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 23.3%
Player Fouled 19.5% 22.4%
Turnover 11.0% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER WCU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 30.8%