NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER CCU
Points 77.2 71.4
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 16.6
Points From Free Throws 11.8 15.3
Shooting MER CCU
Field Goals Made 28.5 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 56.6
Field Goal % 44.3% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 11.8 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 22.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 69.4%
Ball Control MER CCU
Rebounds 36.1 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.9
Turnovers 7.9 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.4
Steals 7.3 4.8
Fouls 16.0 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER CCU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 70.1
% of Possessions with MER CCU
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 20.3%
Player Fouled 17.2% 22.2%
Turnover 11.0% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER CCU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 28.3%