NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY ALA
Points 84.0 87.1
Total Points   171.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 39.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 31.7
Points From Free Throws 21.1 16.0
Shooting BAY ALA
Field Goals Made 27.5 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 60.8
Field Goal % 46.8% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 21.1 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 28.9 21.0
Free Throw % 73.1% 76.4%
Ball Control BAY ALA
Rebounds 35.3 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.5
Turnovers 10.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.5
Steals 6.6 6.2
Fouls 17.4 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY ALA
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 73.5
% of Possessions with BAY ALA
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 37.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 33.4%
Player Fouled 25.4% 23.4%
Turnover 13.6% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY ALA
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 32.9% 28.6%