NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MOSU VALP
Points 75.6 65.4
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 23.5
Points From Free Throws 12.8 8.8
Shooting MOSU VALP
Field Goals Made 28.1 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 64.7
Field Goal % 46.9% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 41.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 12.8 8.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 12.5
Free Throw % 70.3% 70.2%
Ball Control MOSU VALP
Rebounds 43.8 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 32.6 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 9.5
Turnovers 10.5 7.8
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.9
Steals 4.0 5.3
Fouls 12.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MOSU VALP
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 72.0
% of Possessions with MOSU VALP
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 30.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 17.2%
Turnover 14.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MOSU VALP
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 22.5%