NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY ISU
Points 69.4 72.5
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 28.8 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 16.0 13.2
Shooting BAY ISU
Field Goals Made 22.6 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.1 56.5
Field Goal % 45.1% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 26.4 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 16.0 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 18.6
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.8%
Ball Control BAY ISU
Rebounds 35.2 28.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 20.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.3
Turnovers 14.5 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.3
Steals 5.6 9.2
Fouls 16.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY ISU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 67.7
% of Possessions with BAY ISU
2 Point Attempt 32.8% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 23.0%
Player Fouled 23.8% 23.4%
Turnover 21.3% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 13.4% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY ISU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 25.1%