NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK NWST
Points 72.6 72.7
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 22.4
Points From Free Throws 16.5 15.4
Shooting CARK NWST
Field Goals Made 24.4 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 59.6
Field Goal % 42.8% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 16.5 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 23.8
Free Throw % 75.3% 64.9%
Ball Control CARK NWST
Rebounds 38.6 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.7
Turnovers 12.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.5
Steals 6.3 7.4
Fouls 16.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK NWST
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 74.0
% of Possessions with CARK NWST
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 25.4%
Player Fouled 21.3% 22.0%
Turnover 17.6% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK NWST
Shot Blocked 4.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 29.7%