NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK JAC
Points 68.5 75.5
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 25.2
Points From Free Throws 15.4 16.3
Shooting CARK JAC
Field Goals Made 22.7 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 58.7
Field Goal % 42.1% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 23.4
Free Throw % 75.3% 69.8%
Ball Control CARK JAC
Rebounds 32.6 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 13.5
Turnovers 12.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.4
Steals 6.5 8.3
Fouls 15.6 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK JAC
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 73.6
% of Possessions with CARK JAC
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 26.3%
Player Fouled 23.4% 22.2%
Turnover 17.7% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK JAC
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 36.4%