NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER GASO
Points 75.5 75.4
Total Points   150.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 24.6
Points From Free Throws 15.9 15.0
Shooting MER GASO
Field Goals Made 26.6 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 57.6
Field Goal % 45.1% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 21.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.5%
Ball Control MER GASO
Rebounds 36.6 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.1
Turnovers 10.5 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.2
Steals 6.2 6.0
Fouls 15.8 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER GASO
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 70.5
% of Possessions with MER GASO
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 27.2%
Player Fouled 21.8% 22.0%
Turnover 14.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER GASO
Shot Blocked 7.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 33.0% 29.2%