NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER FGCU
Points 69.5 68.5
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 20.3
Points From Free Throws 10.0 11.8
Shooting MER FGCU
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 55.2
Field Goal % 45.1% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 10.0 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 17.3
Free Throw % 67.9% 68.1%
Ball Control MER FGCU
Rebounds 33.1 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.6
Turnovers 9.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 5.9 5.9
Fouls 14.7 11.6

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER FGCU
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 66.1
% of Possessions with MER FGCU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 24.9%
Player Fouled 17.3% 21.8%
Turnover 14.2% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER FGCU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 28.7%