NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY FLA
Points 83.1 80.9
Total Points   164.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.0 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 21.2
Points From Free Throws 20.1 16.7
Shooting BAY FLA
Field Goals Made 27.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 60.8
Field Goal % 47.2% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 20.1 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 27.5 22.8
Free Throw % 73.1% 73.2%
Ball Control BAY FLA
Rebounds 36.0 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 10.4
Turnovers 9.7 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.0
Steals 6.2 6.3
Fouls 16.7 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY FLA
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 74.8
% of Possessions with BAY FLA
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 24.1%
Player Fouled 24.3% 22.6%
Turnover 13.1% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY FLA
Shot Blocked 8.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 29.2%