NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO MONT
Points 77.1 79.9
Total Points   157.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.9 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 27.0
Points From Free Throws 12.5 12.3
Shooting UNCO MONT
Field Goals Made 29.2 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.4
Field Goal % 48.8% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 23.0 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 12.5 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 15.4
Free Throw % 74.6% 80.1%
Ball Control UNCO MONT
Rebounds 32.1 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 6.5
Turnovers 8.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.7
Steals 5.2 4.3
Fouls 14.2 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO MONT
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 68.6
% of Possessions with UNCO MONT
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 30.6%
Player Fouled 18.8% 20.0%
Turnover 11.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO MONT
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 20.5%