NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY CONN
Points 73.2 77.7
Total Points   150.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 31.1
Points From Free Throws 19.1 14.3
Shooting BAY CONN
Field Goals Made 23.7 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 54.4
Field Goal % 41.5% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 28.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 19.1 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 18.8
Free Throw % 75.5% 76.2%
Ball Control BAY CONN
Rebounds 31.4 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.1
Turnovers 7.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 6.4
Steals 5.7 3.4
Fouls 14.5 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY CONN
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 66.5
% of Possessions with BAY CONN
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 35.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 33.4%
Player Fouled 25.4% 21.3%
Turnover 11.6% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY CONN
Shot Blocked 12.0% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 33.2%