NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY KU
Points 75.2 75.3
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 29.3 16.2
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.7
Shooting BAY KU
Field Goals Made 24.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 56.4
Field Goal % 43.5% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 57.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 17.8
Free Throw % 73.1% 71.4%
Ball Control BAY KU
Rebounds 34.0 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 6.6
Turnovers 10.3 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.6
Steals 6.0 6.6
Fouls 14.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY KU
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 67.2
% of Possessions with BAY KU
2 Point Attempt 39.5% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 20.8%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.7%
Turnover 14.7% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY KU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 21.6%