NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER VMI
Points 80.8 65.3
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 47.6 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 15.6
Points From Free Throws 12.4 13.1
Shooting MER VMI
Field Goals Made 30.7 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 57.3
Field Goal % 47.8% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 23.8 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.8 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 12.4 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 18.7
Free Throw % 67.9% 70.4%
Ball Control MER VMI
Rebounds 39.3 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 8.5
Turnovers 9.5 13.9
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.1
Steals 8.2 4.9
Fouls 15.6 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER VMI
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 68.8
% of Possessions with MER VMI
2 Point Attempt 53.2% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 21.1%
Player Fouled 17.6% 21.0%
Turnover 12.8% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER VMI
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 23.0%