NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK VMI
Points 76.6 71.1
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 23.5
Points From Free Throws 14.4 12.6
Shooting CARK VMI
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 61.3
Field Goal % 42.6% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.4 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 17.9
Free Throw % 75.3% 70.4%
Ball Control CARK VMI
Rebounds 40.1 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.9
Turnovers 11.3 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.0
Steals 8.7 6.2
Fouls 14.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK VMI
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 72.3
% of Possessions with CARK VMI
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 27.2%
Player Fouled 18.5% 18.9%
Turnover 14.8% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 11.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK VMI
Shot Blocked 3.4% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.0%