NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK CALBA
Points 64.5 74.4
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 26.8
Points From Free Throws 11.0 16.4
Shooting CARK CALBA
Field Goals Made 23.8 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 58.7
Field Goal % 41.4% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 11.0 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 23.6
Free Throw % 75.3% 69.6%
Ball Control CARK CALBA
Rebounds 32.6 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 12.7
Turnovers 10.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.2
Steals 5.0 4.6
Fouls 15.9 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK CALBA
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 73.2
% of Possessions with CARK CALBA
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 29.2%
Player Fouled 19.2% 23.0%
Turnover 14.6% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK CALBA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 33.4%