NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO NAU
Points 81.1 72.0
Total Points   153.1
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 21.5
Points From Free Throws 13.4 11.8
Shooting UNCO NAU
Field Goals Made 30.8 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.7
Field Goal % 51.4% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 60.0% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 13.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 17.0
Free Throw % 74.6% 69.2%
Ball Control UNCO NAU
Rebounds 35.7 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 7.7
Turnovers 9.5 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.9
Steals 6.4 5.1
Fouls 14.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO NAU
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 70.1
% of Possessions with UNCO NAU
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 27.3%
Player Fouled 19.8% 20.4%
Turnover 13.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO NAU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 21.3%