NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO CSN
Points 77.0 77.3
Total Points   154.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 46.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 16.6
Points From Free Throws 14.0 14.0
Shooting UNCO CSN
Field Goals Made 26.8 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 61.8
Field Goal % 44.1% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 45.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.6% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 27.7 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.0 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 20.7
Free Throw % 74.6% 67.7%
Ball Control UNCO CSN
Rebounds 34.0 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 9.7
Turnovers 11.1 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.1
Steals 6.6 6.7
Fouls 16.3 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO CSN
Total Possessions 76.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 74.6
% of Possessions with UNCO CSN
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 19.2%
Player Fouled 21.9% 21.5%
Turnover 14.6% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO CSN
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 26.4%