NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER CHAT
Points 71.5 77.1
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 27.7
Points From Free Throws 10.6 15.6
Shooting MER CHAT
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 55.7
Field Goal % 42.1% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 10.6 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 20.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 75.3%
Ball Control MER CHAT
Rebounds 33.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.4
Turnovers 8.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.9
Steals 6.2 5.1
Fouls 15.6 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Chattanooga

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER CHAT
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 68.4
% of Possessions with MER CHAT
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 37.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 32.0%
Player Fouled 17.9% 22.4%
Turnover 11.4% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER CHAT
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 28.9%