NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MOSU MURR
Points 71.2 68.0
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 21.1
Points From Free Throws 11.3 10.6
Shooting MOSU MURR
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 61.2
Field Goal % 46.4% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 15.4
Free Throw % 70.3% 68.9%
Ball Control MOSU MURR
Rebounds 38.1 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.2
Turnovers 10.7 7.1
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.3
Steals 3.3 5.5
Fouls 12.6 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MOSU MURR
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 69.8
% of Possessions with MOSU MURR
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 28.0%
Player Fouled 20.4% 18.6%
Turnover 15.8% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MOSU MURR
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 24.0%