NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY VCU
Points 71.5 68.1
Total Points   139.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 23.9
Points From Free Throws 17.6 13.6
Shooting BAY VCU
Field Goals Made 23.2 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 52.7
Field Goal % 42.9% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 17.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 17.6
Free Throw % 73.1% 77.2%
Ball Control BAY VCU
Rebounds 36.1 30.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.8
Turnovers 10.0 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.7
Steals 6.5 6.3
Fouls 14.9 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY VCU
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 63.6
% of Possessions with BAY VCU
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 30.0%
Player Fouled 24.3% 22.0%
Turnover 14.8% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY VCU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 21.4%