NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MOSU ILST
Points 69.2 64.8
Total Points   133.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 19.0
Points From Free Throws 11.1 12.4
Shooting MOSU ILST
Field Goals Made 25.8 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 59.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 38.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 28.0%
Free Throws Made 11.1 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 17.0
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.0%
Ball Control MOSU ILST
Rebounds 38.6 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.8
Turnovers 9.6 7.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.6
Steals 3.3 5.0
Fouls 14.4 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MOSU ILST
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 69.1
% of Possessions with MOSU ILST
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 28.6%
Player Fouled 20.6% 21.4%
Turnover 14.2% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MOSU ILST
Shot Blocked 4.5% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 25.5%