NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORG UMBC
Points 74.9 85.1
Total Points   160.0
Points From 2-Pointers 49.7 47.4
Points From 3-Pointers 12.1 25.4
Points From Free Throws 13.0 12.2
Shooting MORG UMBC
Field Goals Made 28.9 32.2
Field Goals Attempted 68.7 63.9
Field Goal % 42.1% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.9 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 52.2 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 24.6% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 13.0 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 18.0
Free Throw % 75.2% 67.9%
Ball Control MORG UMBC
Rebounds 37.6 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.4
Turnovers 10.8 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.2
Steals 6.6 4.8
Fouls 15.5 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORG UMBC
Total Possessions 77.9
Effective Scoring Chances 79.2 75.2
% of Possessions with MORG UMBC
2 Point Attempt 57.0% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.0% 25.2%
Player Fouled 15.5% 19.9%
Turnover 13.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORG UMBC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 26.9%