NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BRWN MSU
Points 60.1 75.7
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 25.3 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 18.7
Points From Free Throws 11.1 13.8
Shooting BRWN MSU
Field Goals Made 20.6 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 59.3
Field Goal % 37.8% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 12.7 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.8 41.8
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 11.1 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 19.1
Free Throw % 65.0% 72.5%
Ball Control BRWN MSU
Rebounds 32.7 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 11.3
Turnovers 12.9 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.4
Steals 4.2 7.2
Fouls 15.1 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BRWN MSU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 70.9
% of Possessions with BRWN MSU
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 21.7%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.2%
Turnover 18.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken BRWN MSU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 32.9%