NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER WOF
Points 71.1 72.7
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 25.3
Points From Free Throws 12.1 11.9
Shooting MER WOF
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 57.1
Field Goal % 43.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 24.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 12.1 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 19.2
Free Throw % 67.9% 61.9%
Ball Control MER WOF
Rebounds 33.2 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.3
Turnovers 8.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.5
Steals 5.8 3.8
Fouls 15.8 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER WOF
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 69.3
% of Possessions with MER WOF
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 29.8%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.1%
Turnover 11.7% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER WOF
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 32.0%