NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MOSU UALR
Points 73.2 70.5
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 19.5
Points From Free Throws 15.2 10.6
Shooting MOSU UALR
Field Goals Made 25.3 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 64.6
Field Goal % 42.2% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 15.2 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 14.5
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.1%
Ball Control MOSU UALR
Rebounds 40.1 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.9
Turnovers 10.4 9.3
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.2
Steals 4.0 5.0
Fouls 12.5 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MOSU UALR
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 73.2
% of Possessions with MOSU UALR
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 53.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.8% 17.4%
Turnover 14.5% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MOSU UALR
Shot Blocked 8.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 27.5%