NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BRWN MW
Points 67.1 63.3
Total Points   130.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 19.3
Points From Free Throws 13.6 13.2
Shooting BRWN MW
Field Goals Made 23.6 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 54.0
Field Goal % 43.0% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 13.6 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 17.6
Free Throw % 65.0% 74.8%
Ball Control BRWN MW
Rebounds 42.8 26.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 14.8 6.2
Turnovers 15.2 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.5
Steals 5.9 9.1
Fouls 14.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BRWN MW
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 64.2
% of Possessions with BRWN MW
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 28.1%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.3%
Turnover 21.7% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 13.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BRWN MW
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 41.9% 18.1%